Friday, October 9, 2009

My own two cents on the situation in Afghanistan

I’ve wanted to write something on this for some time but it’s such a huge and very complicated issue that I still have no idea how to make it more concise…but I’ll give it a shot.

I honestly think that there is no ideal solution to the war in Afghanistan. If we pull out entirely as some have called for, we continue in the tradition of the British and Russian empires. The Afghans learned from them that through guerrilla warfare, seemingly David v. Goliath situations against foreign powers can be made too costly to sustain and the foreigners would eventually leave. If we cut and run now, we will also give terrorist organizations the propaganda tool to recruit many more people and al Qaeda will come back to Afghanistan.

Gen McCrystal has asked for 40,000 more troops and has said, “The situation is serious but winnable with the right strategy and additional resources.” I don’t think it is so cut and dry that if we just had more troops we could better “take and hold” areas and prevent them from becoming “Talibanized.” The people in Afghanistan do not want us there-they do not necessarily want the Taliban back in power, but they don’t see Karzai’s govt. as legit and certainly do not want a foreign power interfering with their daily lives. The people of Afghanistan are intensely loyal to their little clans and basically are just a collection of nation-states. They are not united so much by an ideology or religion but by their mistrust of foreigners. The insurgency movement uses this more than anything to gather popular support, or at least acquiescence to their cause by creating the age-old “Us v. Them” mentality.

We got into this whole thing because the Afghans refused to turn over Osama bin Ladin and other al Qaeda operatives. It was not because they supported the ideology of al Qaeda(really, the Taliban cares not for the Islamization of the world and are quite content to just focus on keeping Shariah in their own areas) but because of a societal code of honor. Due to the fact that Afghanistan has always been a route to somewhere else (as opposed to an actual destination), the concept of “Melmastia” came to be. “Melmastia” is the notion that refugees or travelers would receive both hospitality and protection as guests in the Afghan village. This practice goes waaay back to ancient times, and this willingness to be hospitable, though the hosts may live in the worst state of poverty, really establishes a sense of personal worth and pride within the village. We offered the Afghans over 25 million dollars for bin Ladin…and then refused. This was not so much a hostile act of war, but a strong and silent showing of moral fiber in accordance to their own unique culture.

So, we screwed that up, what do we do now? Like I stated in a previous post on the AfPak nonsense, I would like to see us open up talks with the Taliban. They are oppressive but also fair and outlawed the drug-trade that has so corrupted Karzai’s government. At least we know what to expect with them and perhaps if given some legitimacy while being monitored they will become more moderate. We should also use Pakistan’s version of the CIA, the ISI, to hunt down and “off” al Qaeda leaders. The ISI likes to play political games and use their intelligence as leverage with the US, Taliban, al Qaeda, and India->as we’ve seen with terrorist attacks there. We need to appeal to the ISI and make sure they’re only batting for our team; we can do this monetarily and through threats of military action in order to use them to get to al Qaeda. Lets also Not forget about Iran. They also have something to fear from Sunni militancy. None of this will be easy, but I think that Obama has the wisdom to examine all of his options and take into account the many variables in order to make a responsible decision.

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